And of course, he named it the Trump dividend. Is it remotely possible Trump could even make this happen?

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How Much Will It Cost?

The first aspect to consider is the cost, especially when the country is already at $40 trillion in debt. We simply don’t have the money for this; it’s absurd.

Current census data puts the adult citizen population at roughly 240 million…

Multiply that by $5,000, and you get roughly $1.2 trillion. That number may vary depending on what estimates you’re looking at, but it’s between 240 million and 270 million Americans.

This is more than what the federal government spends on Medicare. Through eleven months of fiscal 2026, Medicare cost $979 billion. National defense was $916 billion.

Paying interest on our debt now costs more than $1 trillion on its own.

Total federal revenue for the fiscal year through August was $4.8 trillion. A $1.2 trillion dividend is roughly a quarter of every dollar the federal government takes in, handed back out in a single year.

For scale, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget points out this would cost more in a single year than all three rounds of pandemic relief checks combined. And those went out during an actual economic emergency as the economy was shut down…

And of course, economists are saying this will simply add more debt and exacerbate inflation. Which is exactly what happened during 2020 with the Trump/Biden bucks.

The Tariff Revenue Problem

So where is the money supposed to come from?

Vice President Vance says tariff revenue, and he cited roughly $154 billion collected in the first ten months of fiscal 2026.

As you might expect, $154 billion in revenue doesn’t cover a $1.2 trillion payout.

Even better, tariff revenue has been halted since February.

The Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Trump used the IEEPA for the Liberation Day schedule and the trafficking tariffs. Half of our tariff revenue has come from an illegal use of that act…

Roughly an extra $165 billion was collected through Liberation Day tariffs, and the Court of International Trade has ordered every dollar refunded.

The cherry on top?

Net tariff revenue was negative for three straight months.

Revenue was positive until the Supreme Court ruled in February and the refunds started. The numbers started dropping until massive refunds kicked in, in May… then we hit negative $42 million. June at negative $25.6 billion. July at negative $8.5 billion.

After the reciprocal tariffs, Liberation Day, the fentanyl tariffs, and more than fifty changes to tariff policy in eighteen months, net customs revenue was basically flat. They collected $292 billion in revenue, but refunded $125 billion of it.

Now we just the existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, etc which generates roughly $63 billion a year. We have a new global flat tariff rate but there are issues with the new ones as well.

In summary, there is no tariff money. Any dividend would just be new debt.

Is It Even Legal?

The next obvious question to ask… is this even legal?

First off, Trump has asserted he doesn’t need Congressional approval. The Constitution vests control of federal spending in Congress, and no president has unilateral authority to disburse $1.2 trillion from the Treasury.

But the real obstacle isn’t Democrats. It's hard for the opposition party to vote against a $5,000 check to every adult. The obstacles are legality and winning the election lol.

Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio has said he will prepare a bill so the dividend can pass immediately after the election. Senate leader John Thune is more skeptical, but it’s clear many members of the party are open to the idea.

We are in the end-times, loot-the-empire phase of our fading global superpower, if that was not obvious already.

Even assuming the Republicans would win the midterms… the polling for the upcoming election is abysmal. The Republicans are forecasted to get absolutely smoked. Polymarket currently assigns Democrats roughly 87% of flipping the House.

Previous Payment Promises

Trump’s track record over the last two years has been pitiful on stipend promises.

When DOGE was trying to cut $2 trillion of reckless federal spending, Trump endorsed the idea of paying out $5,000 rebate checks back then too.

Well, as we now know, DOGE failed miserably at cutting anywhere close to $2 trillion. They claimed to get rid of $215 billion in spending. But DOGE only had receipts for around $100 billion of axed spending. It’s somewhere in that range; either way, it’s a drop in the bucket when looking at our deficits.

In November 2025, Trump posted that a dividend of at least $2,000 per person would be paid from tariff revenue, with the rest going to pay down the debt.

In January, Trump said the checks would come toward the end of the year. It has now been ten months.

Trump did get the $1,776 warrior dividend for service members out in December 2025, but that was an easy one to get through Congress. This was in billions, though, not trillions.

Republicans will very likely lose in the House, if not the Senate as well… and boom, no one is getting $5,000.

The Consequences

Talking hypotheticals… current estimates are that if this dividend does end up happening… it could add about 1.5 percentage points to inflation. Which, as of right now, is sitting at 3.4% as of August. So, a jump up to 4.9%.

And unlike 2020, you’d be dumping $1.2 trillion into an economy that’s already running. There’s no supply gap to absorb this new money.

Beneficiaries of a massive influx of cash would be concentrated in discretionary retail, consumer staples, and payment processors, roughly as the 2020 and 2021 checks did. Precious metals, crypto, and other safe-haven assets are the obvious hedging tools.

With that said, investors don’t need to make any moves yet. As we went over earlier, it’s unlikely any of this happens at all.

Unfortunately, this just seems like a bribe to get people to vote for Republicans. Although it would be legally challenging to prove this is vote-buying, since this dividend would benefit everyone in the country.

It’s unlikely to work when the Iran war is wreaking havoc on the economy.

That problem will only get worse, since prices are being artificially held down by historic oil reserve releases by various countries. We can only kick the can so far down the road. When we run out of oil reserves, it’s basically guaranteed we will see inflation explode higher. Potential money printing only makes that worse.

So, in an attempt to provide economic relief, Trump would just make the long-term economic issues worse, as inflation would eat away at personal spending power. As it has over the last ~6 years.

Safe to say I’m not a big fan, but we will see what happens. The only positive would be that some funds would go back to citizens instead of being spent on more bureaucratic garbage.

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Disclaimer

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Firearm & Ammunition Sector

• Smith & Wesson (SWBI): A prominent firearms manufacturer listed on the Nasdaq with a market cap of $470 million. The company produces a range of pistols, revolvers, and modern sporting rifles, and is noted as the third-largest provider of personal firearms by volume in the United States.

• Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR): The largest firearms manufacturer in the U.S., trading on the NYSE with a market capitalization of $623 million. Ruger has a diversified portfolio of over 40 product lines, including various rifles and pistols, and has expanded through the acquisition of Marlin Firearms.

• Olin Corporation (OLN): A diversified company on the NYSE with a market cap of $2.3 billion. While it operates in vinyl and epoxy divisions, it is a key player in the ammunition market through its ownership of the Winchester brand.

• Outdoor Holding Company (POWW): Formerly AMMO Inc., this Nasdaq-listed company has a market cap of $167 million. It has transitioned from ammunition manufacturing to focus on its high-margin online firearm brokerage platform, GunBroker.com.

Law Enforcement & Personal Security Sector

• Axon Enterprise (AXON): A major supplier for law enforcement on the Nasdaq with a substantial market cap of $60 billion. Axon is the producer of the TASER, a near-monopolist in police body cameras, and provides high-margin cloud software for footage management.

• SoundThinking (SSTI): A technology company on the Nasdaq with a $200 million market cap. Its primary product is ShotSpotter, an acoustic gunshot detection system that alerts police to the location of gunfire in real-time.

• Wrap Technologies (WRAP): A Nasdaq-listed company with an $88 million market cap, focused on less-lethal solutions. Its main product is the BolaWrap, a device that deploys a tether to restrain a subject without causing harm.

• Byrna Technologies (BYRN): Trading on the Nasdaq with a market cap of $700 million, this company offers less-lethal personal security devices. It produces CO2-powered launchers that fire kinetic or chemical irritant rounds as an alternative to traditional firearms.

Security Services Sector

• Brink’s Company (BCO): A global security logistics company listed on the NYSE with a market cap of $3.6 billion. While diversified with services in over 100 countries, its core business includes armored car transportation for moving cash and other valuables for businesses, which could see increased demand during times of unrest.

Stock List

• VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF

  • Ticker: REMX

  • Market Cap / NAV: ~$260 million

  • Summary: Offers diversified exposure to rare earths and strategic metals. Top holdings include rare earth miners (CNREHT, Lynas, MP Materials) and lithium/titanium companies (Albemarle, SQM, Pilbara). Includes significant Chinese exposure.

• MP Materials

  • Ticker: MP (NYSE)

  • Market Cap: ~$4 billion

  • Summary: Largest rare earth producer in the Western Hemisphere. Operates the Mountain Pass mine in California and is building a magnet manufacturing facility in Texas. Vertically integrating mining and magnet production; magnet output expected by late 2025. Supported by U.S. government incentives.

• Lynas Rare Earths

  • Ticker: LYC (ASX)

  • Market Cap: ~$8.5 billion

  • Summary: Largest rare earth producer outside China. Operates Mt Weld mine (Australia) and processing in Malaysia. Building $3.2B U.S. processing facilities in Texas (targeting 2026). Received ~$300M U.S. government support.

• Energy Fuels

  • Ticker: UUUU (NYSE American)

  • Market Cap: ~$1 billion

  • Summary: Primarily a uranium company. Repurposed mill in Utah to process rare earths. Has rare earth feedstock projects in Brazil, Madagascar, and Australia. Donald Project in Australia (JV) may begin production in 2026.

• Iluka Resources

  • Ticker: ILU (ASX)

  • Market Cap: ~$1 billion

  • Summary: Established mineral sands producer (zircon/titanium). Diversifying into rare earths. Building a refinery in Western Australia with a $1.6B loan from the Australian government. Refinery commissioning in 2026; Balranald mine to supply feedstock in late 2025.

• USA Rare Earth

  • Ticker: USAR (Nasdaq)

  • Market Cap: ~$1 billion

  • Summary: Owns 80% of the Round Top rare earth deposit in Texas. Developing a U.S. magnet manufacturing facility, with the first production line expected in 2026. Vertically integrated U.S. supply chain under development.

• Arafura Rare Earths

  • Ticker: ARU (ASX)

  • Market Cap: ~$430 million

  • Summary: Developing the Nolans Project in Northern Territory, Australia. Plans include a mine, beneficiation, extraction, and separation all onsite. Permitted and offtake agreements in place; needs $600–$700M more financing. Potential startup around 2027–2028.

• Hastings Technology Metals

  • Ticker: HAS (ASX)

  • Market Cap: ~$55 million

  • Summary: Owns 40% of Yangibana project in Western Australia (JV with Wyloo Metals). First production expected in 2024; rare earth carbonate production targeted for 2026. Brought in an experienced partner to increase chances of success.

• Pensana

  • Ticker: PRE (LSE)

  • Market Cap: ~$160 million

  • Summary: Developing a rare earth mine in Angola and a separation facility in the UK. Angola construction underway; production expected by late 2026. UK facility timeline pending Angola’s completion.

• VHM Limited

  • Ticker: VHM (ASX)

  • Market Cap: ~$60 million

  • Summary: Developing the Goschen Project in Victoria, Australia, combining mineral sands and rare earths. First production expected Q4 2026 with eventual 5ktpa capacity.

• Ionic Rare Earths

  • Ticker: IXR (ASX)

  • Market Cap: ~$36 million

  • Summary: Developing a rare earths project in Uganda. Demo unit successfully produced mixed rare earths in March 2024. Awaiting financing and offtakers to proceed. Also working on a Belfast-based magnet recycling facility with potential 2027 launch.

• Neo Performance Materials

  • Ticker: NEO (TSX)

  • Market Cap: ~$480 million

  • Summary: Diversified producer with significant rare earth exposure. Operates Europe’s only active rare earth separation plant in Estonia. Building a magnet plant to supply 1.5M EVs by 2026. Delivered 18,000 magnet parts in April 2025. No mining risk, focus on value-added production.

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Stock List

Transcript

The U.S. Court of International Trade recently issued a ruling blocking a large number of Trump’s tariffs that he announced during “Liberation Day.” When he launched wide-reaching tariffs on every U.S. trading partner.

In this video, we’re going to review why the tariffs are being blocked, which industries stand to benefit, and what it means for investors in stock markets.

Taking a step back, Trump announced tariffs on a variety of countries:

• There was set to be a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imported goods

• Higher "reciprocal" tariffs targeting specific countries with significant trade surpluses with the United States. These included rates such as 34% for China, 20% for the European Union, and 24% for Japan.

• And if you recall, earlier in the year, Trump was starting things off by placing 25% tariffs on most imports from Mexico and Canada

All of these broad tariffs were justified by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (or IEEPA).

Ultimately, the Court of International Trade found that Trump’s interpretation and usage of this law was unconstitutional. In many cases, the president should have to get congressional approval to implement new tariffs. The court determined that the IEEPA does not give the President unilateral power to threaten tariffs as he pleases.

So, all of the tariffs we mentioned earlier have officially been struck down. It’s likely that the Trump administration will try to appeal this decision. And they are already looking to potentially see if the Supreme Court will reverse the trade court’s decision. But that is where we find ourselves now.

It’s crucial to remember that this isn’t the same law that was used to justify the 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. That is Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. So, those tariffs will remain in place.

U.S. futures were up 1-2 percent before the market opened because of this news. The market has made it quite clear that it does not like tariffs. If that wasn’t already apparent enough.

The immediate implications of this decision from the courts is that we could see greater product pricing stability because businesses won’t constantly need to respond to the threat of impending tariffs.

Tariffs are something that Trump has been using as a bargaining tool with other countries, well, this becomes a problem when trying to determine how you should make investments as a business. You really have no idea if these tariffs are going to stick or not.

We could also see further reductions in inflationary pressure, which has already been dropping substantially, but tariffs were obviously going to raise prices if they went into effect. We have avoided that, as things stand.

Whether you agree with the tariffs or not, I personally don’t think they were going to work. I can appreciate the idea of trying to bring high-paying jobs back to the United States… but the way in which Trump has been using tariffs is problematic.

Using tariffs as a bargaining chip to get countries to do what you want… leaves businesses in a state of limbo as they don’t know what tariffs are going to stick around or suddenly disappear. You can’t make long-term business decisions, like making investments to bring manufacturing back to the U.S… if you’re unsure if the tariffs are going to last.

So, I think Trump has been too wishy washy to actually get corporations to assume the tariffs will still be around years from now…

That ultimately means they won’t make the investments necessary to bring jobs back to the U.S. I have significant doubts that tariffs will do anything but just hurt the economy in the way this administration has been using them so far.

There are potential alternative options for Trump to implement tariffs in different ways, so I’m not sure that the tariff threats are going away.

As you can see on the screen, we already know of at least 3-4 different sections and bills that Trump could use to implement new tariffs.

If Trump wants to incentivize new manufacturing capacity domestically, he could go the Biden route and create tax incentives or subsidies. But he will very likely just announce new tariffs under another law if the appeals don’t go his way.

And as I was in the process of making this video, the appeals did, in fact, go his way. The blockage of Trump’s tariffs has been temporarily halted by an appeals court. So, this is going to get worked out over time. I am going to assume that Trump will eventually put tariffs back on, one way or another, so that’s probably how we should position ourselves.

How does all of this affect investors? Obviously, the market doesn’t appreciate all of this uncertainty. And if we assume tariffs are going to stay on for the next few years, at least, then the big winners are going to be companies producing goods domestically. At the very least, companies with manufacturing capacity outside of unfriendly nations like China.

So, if we’re looking for the winners in an era where the U.S. will presumably have tariffs for the next few years… you’re looking at sectors like domestic steel or aluminum. Which is just the first example.

U.S. Steel (X), which Nippon could be buying out pretty soon.

Nucor (NUE), is another large steel producer domestically.

In terms of aluminum, you’re looking for companies like Century Aluminum (CENX) or Alcoa Corporation (AA). They both operate most of the remaining aluminum smelters in the USA.

But we have to be careful even with companies like this that have domestic production. Alcoa, for example, is expected to pay an additional $90 million in the second quarter for the raw material required to smelt aluminum. All thanks to the tariffs.

So, even companies that, in theory, should benefit from the tariffs are being hurt by them if there are no domestic sources of supplies across the supply chain.

Other potential beneficiaries are companies like Tesla that focused on developing domestic manufacturing capabilities.

Semiconductor companies that operate in the United States. Intel would theoretically be a good choice, but that company has had a variety of problems over the past few years.

Overall, I’m not personally a big fan of the immediate potential winners, they operate in extremely capital-intensive industries full of competition.

So, my focus is probably just going to be focusing on companies that are largely unaffected by the tariffs entirely. Either operating outside of commoditized sectors or dealing with financial instruments, software, things of that nature. Low capital commitments and products that won’t be harmed by tariffs either way.

In terms of which industries lose when tariffs remain in place… basically anything that relies on importing supplies.

Construction materials, consumer electronics, most of the automotive industry…

Even industries that don’t directly deal with imports will likely be negatively affected because other countries, like China, are going to hit the USA with retaliatory tariffs like they were over the last month.

So, agriculture companies will suffer from that aspect, if things aren’t sorted out with China.

International transportation companies are hurt as well by declining trade and cargo volumes. Less international shipping and more production in the United States means fewer things being traded and thus transported.

This is why the economy hates the tariffs so much, it affects so many different industries, it’s somewhat difficult to find ones that aren’t hurt by what the Trump administration is doing.

That pain could be stomached if we were at least sure that it was going to have its intended affect. Bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., but as I mentioned earlier, it’s difficult to see that happening when Trump doesn’t have consistent messaging on which tariffs will stay around.

Ultimately, it might be too early to make any investment decisions when it’s too soon to tell how all of this will play out…

If the tariffs do end up getting cancelled or Trump backs off, then the opposite of everything I just said will be true. Companies reliant on imports will get some reprieve as prices stabilize.

With all of that said, I do think there are some clear winners that could be interesting regardless of whether the tariffs stay or go.

The production of critical metals outside of China. It’s clear that the United States’ reliance on the Chinese for crucial commodities like copper, graphite, rare earths, and other metals used in a variety of critical products is becoming a problem.

This is something that both sides of the political spectrum can agree on, so this move will continue regardless of what happens with these tariffs.

There are clear incentives to get new mines, processing operations, and other material production outside of China. The Chinese dominate the West’s supply chains.

So, any new mines or facilities outside of China are likely to receive aid from the U.S. government and other governments around the world.

This is likely what I’m going to talk about in my next video about some of the restrictions China is placing on rare earth metals. Stay tuned for that.