Cathie Wood of ARK Invest is buying millions of dollars’ worth of shares in Archer Aviation ACHR 0.00%↑ and Joby Aviation JOBY 0.00%↑ , two of the biggest players in eVTOLs. She sees the recent pullback in these stocks as a long-term entry point into disruptive urban air mobility.
I covered Archer in my last article, so this one is all about Joby.
Joby closed at $4.90 a share on Friday, for a market cap of around $4.9 billion. The stock is down more than 70% from its 52-week high of around $17.
Joby is developing an all-electric air taxi network built around eVTOLs, short for electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.
For a full overview of how the eVTOL industry works, check out my previous article on Archer. It’s a long one, so I won’t repeat it all here.
Today, Joby Is a Helicopter Company
For now, Joby is really a helicopter company. In 2025, it bought Blade’s passenger business, which flies helicopter routes like Manhattan to JFK, the Hamptons, and event routes in Europe.
In Q2 2026, Joby brought in roughly $39 million in revenue, and Blade accounted for $36 million of that, about 92%.
Blade’s business is growing:
Seats sold were up more than 50% year over year in Q2
Revenue grew 32% in the first half
Management says many routes are capped by aircraft availability, not demand
On October 2nd, the Blade One jet service returned for the season, flying between the New York City area and South Florida in partnership with Aero
That helped Joby raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $115 to $125 million.
The Business Model
Long term, Joby wants three revenue streams:
Its own air taxi service, booked through its own app and Uber
Aircraft sales to other operators
Defense
Building aircraft is extremely capital intensive, and Joby is doing most of it itself:
It designs its own motors, batteries, and airframes
It owns factories in California and Dayton, Ohio
It plans to own and operate its own fleet
If that works, Joby keeps the full margin on every flight. Until then, Joby pays for the entire build-out before a single eVTOL passenger buys a ticket.
That’s a contrast with Archer, which has brought in Stellantis and other partners to share development costs.
The S4 and FAA Certification
Joby’s core product is the S4 air taxi, designed for speeds up to 200 miles per hour and roughly 100 miles of range.
None of that matters without FAA certification. Joby is in the fifth and final stage, called Type Inspection Authorization (TIA):
On March 11, its first FAA-conforming aircraft flew with Joby pilots on board
FAA pilots were expected to start for-credit testing later this year
As of Q2, Joby had five aircraft flying and 12 more in production
Early Flights and Launch Markets
The eVTOL Integration Pilot Program
The eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (EIPP) is a White House-backed program designed to jumpstart the industry by letting aircraft fly real routes before full certification.
Joby kicked off its EIPP flights around Dallas-Fort Worth on September 10, from a new 45,000-square-foot base at Fort Worth Alliance Airport. These were demonstration flights only, with no paying passengers yet, but first passengers are targeted before year-end.
Florida
On October 30, Joby flew across Tampa Bay from Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg, retracing the route of the world’s first commercial airline flight in 1914.
The Florida campaign also includes flights at Orlando International Airport and Kennedy Space Center, with competitor Beta Technologies flying alongside Joby.
These are still demonstration flights, but Florida is a market to watch. The state is targeting December 2026 for commercial air taxi service to begin and is fully invested in the sector.
Dubai
Dubai is another big market. Joby has an exclusive six-year right to run air taxis there, with vertiports planned at Dubai International Airport and several other locations.
The launch was originally targeted for early 2026 and still hasn’t happened. The new target is year-end.
Defense
In September, Joby used its autonomous flight system to fly an aircraft about 3,000 miles coast to coast across the US. That technology, along with its hybrid and hydrogen-electric aircraft programs, is being moved into its Resonant defense unit.
Joby’s Lead
Joby is currently seen as the sector leader because it’s furthest along in FAA certification.
That’s not a long-term defensible moat. But since certification takes so long, being first is a big deal for generating early revenue and landing major partnerships that competitors may not get access to.
Key Partnerships
Toyota
Toyota is Joby’s biggest partner, having backed the company for nearly a decade, including a $500 million commitment announced in 2025.
There’s also a manufacturing joint venture in which Toyota owns 51% and Joby owns 49%. However, the JV started with only around $2 million in equity, and Toyota’s next $250 million investment still depends on future agreements.
Uber
In February, the companies launched Uber Air, which lets riders book Joby flights in the Uber app, starting in Dubai. Blade helicopter seats will also be available on Uber.
Smaller agreements
Investments from Delta and SK Telecom in Korea
Early-stage agreements with Virgin Atlantic in the UK and L3Harris on defense autonomy
None of these are generating significant revenue yet.
Growth Opportunities
Since Joby can’t do much in air taxis until it’s certified, a lot of near-term growth will come from acquisitions and its existing businesses.
Resonant Sciences
Resonant is an Ohio radar and stealth tech contractor:
More than $100 million in revenue over the last 12 months, up about 40%
High-teens adjusted EBITDA margins
Joby has a deal in place to acquire it. If it closes in the first half of 2027, Joby’s revenue roughly doubles overnight.
Swapping Blade’s helicopters for eVTOLs
Blade already has the customers, terminals, and pricing data in its markets. Swapping helicopters for quieter, cheaper-to-run eVTOLs would ease many of the constraints helicopters face in cities and open up a lot of new routes.
Dubai
Dubai is Joby’s first commercial launch market, with a government exclusivity deal and a premium customer base. It’s one to watch.
Industry Trends
A few trends benefit Joby:
Regulators are moving faster. Jurisdictions like the US and Abu Dhabi are racing to be first.
Defense is the funding bridge. With air taxis still unprofitable, defense contracting helps fund the business. Joby bought Resonant, and Archer bought several Boeing businesses around the same time, and that’s not a coincidence. Investors want certainty, not companies bleeding cash forever.
Autonomy is the end game. Pilots are the biggest per-flight cost, so autonomous flight would dramatically improve margins. That’s likely part of why Cathie Wood is leaning in. She probably sees it a lot like early Tesla.
The industry is also consolidating. A few years ago, dozens of eVTOL startups existed. Lilium and Volocopter went insolvent, and Archer is buying Wisk. The survivors will be the ones with the deepest pockets and the best partnerships.
The Moat
As I said with Archer, none of these companies really has a moat. Their aircraft designs are fairly similar, and there won’t be a huge difference between the players.
It will mostly come down to:
Partnerships
Speed to market
Who reaches profitability before running out of money or getting bought out
The market will likely end up as an oligopoly of a few players, possibly varying by region.
Competition
Archer Aviation: The obvious one. It recently bought three Boeing businesses, and in exchange, Boeing will own ~20% (16.5%) of the company. But Archer is behind on air taxi certification.
Beta Technologies: Competing on electric aircraft, while also selling motors and charging infrastructure.
Eve Air Mobility: Backed by Embraer and going after the same market.
EHang: Already flying autonomous passenger eVTOLs in China, but not really competing in Western markets.
Joby vs. Archer
Joby Archer FAA progress Furthest along Behind Cash More Less Existing business Blade passenger business Larger defense business Key partners Toyota Boeing, Stellantis
Overall, I think the two are very similar, and it comes down to how much you want to bet on air taxis. If you think air taxis will be the big moneymaker, Joby is the more focused play. If you want something more diversified, Archer has the larger defense business and keeps acquiring in that space.
Dilution
As an unprofitable company, Joby will keep diluting shareholders.
Shares outstanding were about 989 million as of August 3, up from about 800 million a year earlier, a 24% increase
Potential dilutive securities (about 125 million shares as of Q2):
56 million RSUs
14 million warrants
About 5 million options
About 49 million earn-out shares from the SPAC era
That’s about 12% to 13% potential dilution.
On top of that, Joby has a new at-the-market program authorized to sell about $750 million of stock. That’s about 150 million shares, or another 15% potential dilution.
Financials
Q2 2026:
Revenue: about $39 million
Gross margin: about 27%, almost entirely from Blade’s helicopter business
R&D: about $195 million
SG&A: $77 million
Total operating expenses: around $300 million, up 78% year over year
Net loss: $245 million
None of this is surprising. As Joby ramps up, losses will keep growing until it actually flies passengers in eVTOLs, and even then it needs to scale the fleet.
Balance sheet:
Cash: $630 million
Short-term investments: about $1.6 billion
Total: about $2.3 billion, with no meaningful debt
Joby spends about $200 million a quarter and is using $450 million in cash for the Resonant deal. That leaves about two years of runway. Joby won’t want to run that too low, so expect continued dilution.
Valuation
At around a $5 billion valuation with about $2 billion in cash, Joby is still pretty expensive for all the risks it faces, even after a 70%+ drop.
It’s more attractive than it used to be, but you’re paying up significantly for a company with minimal operations in the business it’s actually focused on.
Final Thoughts
Joby has a lot going for it:
The most advanced eVTOL program in the US
The most cash
A real helicopter business
Optionality in defense
But it’s also burning a lot of cash, diluting shareholders, and doesn’t have much of a moat.
If air taxi growth estimates pan out, the lack of a moat may be fine. Joby could end up as one of the two or three companies that dominate the industry.
I do think the valuation got insane, so I’m not surprised the stock dropped, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it falls further.
The big unknown is FAA certification. There’s no guarantee when it happens. But when that news comes, it’ll be huge, and the stock could shoot back up on that alone.
So buying now is a bit of a gamble on certification coming through in the next couple of quarters. At the same time, the stock could easily slip further, especially on any delays.
On a risk-reward basis, it’s still too risky for me. If the stock dropped another 50%+, which could happen, I’d at least consider it. It also depends on the macro picture over the next six to 12 months.
For now, Joby is a wait-and-see situation.
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